Menene zai faru idan Bitcoin ya ragu? Fahimtar tsarin raba Bitcoin da tasirinsa

Bitcoin ya shigo cikin taron "rabi" na huɗu a tarihi.

数据表明，截至北京时间2024年4月20日8:09，比特币在区块高度840000处胜利完成了这一重大时刻，挖矿奖励从6.25BTC减半至3.125BTC，而上一次减半则发生在2020年5月11日。

Menene tsarin raba Bitcoin?

Rarraba Bitcoin wani muhimmin al'amari ne na cyclical a cikin sararin cryptocurrency, kuma ainihin lokacin ya dogara da saurin toshe ƙarni a cikin hanyar sadarwar Bitcoin.

Wannan taron yana faruwa kusan sau ɗaya a kowace shekara 4.Ko kuma bayan an haƙa tubalan 21 akan blockchain na Bitcoin, ladar da masu hakar ma'adinai na Bitcoin ke samu daga kowane sabon toshe za a rage rabi.

Manufar rangwamen shine don rage ƙimar da aka ƙirƙiri sababbin Bitcoins, don haka kiyaye ƙarancin su da ƙimar su.

• Saboda cryptocurrency jujjuya sosai da kuma rakiyar zuba jari kasada ne babba, idan kana so ka kama rabo daga cikin rabiing na Bitcoin ma'adinai lada, shi ne karfi da shawarar cewa zuba jari bai wuce 10% na ajiya, in ba haka ba ba za ka zuba jari.

Abubuwan da suka faru na raguwa na tarihi:

• 2009: Sakamakon hakar ma'adinai na Bitcoin yana farawa a 50 BTC kowace toshe.
• 2012: Raba farko, lada ya ragu zuwa 25 BTC.
• 2016: Raba na biyu, lada ya ragu zuwa 12.5 BTC.
• 2020: Raba na uku, ladan ya ragu zuwa 6.25 BTC.
• 2024: Raba na huɗu, lada zai ragu zuwa 3.125 BTC.

Menene tasirin raguwar Bitcoin zai yi?

Abin da zai faru bayan raguwar Bitcoin:

1. Ga masu hakar ma'adinai, rangwame yana nufin an rage ladan toshe su, wanda zai iya shafar ribar su da abubuwan haɓaka ma'adinai.
2. Ga kasuwa, raguwar abubuwan da suka faru sau da yawa ana danganta su da haɓakar farashin Bitcoin, saboda rage yawan samar da kayayyaki na iya haifar da haɓakar dangi a cikin buƙata, yana tura farashin mafi girma.
3. Ga masu saka hannun jari, rangwamen babban abin lura ne saboda yana iya tasiri dabarun saka hannun jari da dawowar su.

Farashin Bitcoin ya tashi kadan bayan 'rabi'

Abin da ake kira "rabi" yana nufin cewa ladan da masu hakar ma'adinai ke samu sun ragu da rabi. Duk lokacin da blockchain na Bitcoin ya haifar da tubalan 21, ladan toshewar Bitcoin yana raguwa. Ciki har da wannan lokacin, Bitcoin ya sami "rabi" guda huɗu tun lokacin haihuwarsa a 2009.

Bayan da labarin ya bayyana, farashin Bitcoin ya faɗi kaɗan kuma a halin yanzu yana canzawa kusan dala 63550 a kowace tsabar kuɗi.

Sakamakon wannan raguwar shine adadin masu hakar ma'adinai na Bitcoins da ke samu ta hanyar tabbatar da ma'amala a kowace rana ya ragu daga 900 zuwa 450, kuma an rage ladan da masu hakar ma'adinai ke samu daga 6.25 Bitcoins zuwa 3.125 Bitcoins.

"Rabi" = jigon sabuwar kasuwar sa?

Magoya bayan Bitcoin sun riga sun yi tsammanin cewa "rabi" zai zama mai kara kuzari ga sabon kasuwar bijimin saboda yayin da bukatar Bitcoin tabo ETFs ya karu, "rabin" ya kara rage yawan samar da Bitcoin.

历史上，比特币减半事件前后的价格波动引起了广泛关注。在2012年、2016年和2020年的减半事件前30天，比特币价格分别上涨了5%、13%和27%。此外，减半事件还推动了比特币地址数量的增长，尤其是在减半后的150天内，新创建的比特币地址数量分别增长了83%、101%和11%。

Ko da yake farashin Bitcoin ya yi tashin gwauron zabo bayan abubuwan da suka faru a baya-bayan nan, masu lura da kasuwanni, ciki har da manazarta daga JPMorgan Chase da Deutsche Bank, a baya sun yi hasashen cewa tasirin wannan "rabin" zai kasance mafi yawa. .

Wani manazarcin JPMorgan Nicholas Panigirzoglu ya fada a ranar Alhamis cewa yana tsammanin Bitcoin zai zo karkashin matsin lamba a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci yayin da kasuwa ke siya kuma farashin ya kasance yana haɓaka dangane da zinari. Ya kuma ambata cewa tallafin aikin crypto yana da sluggish.

Manazarta a Deutsche Bank suna da irin wannan ra'ayi. Marion Labour, wani manazarci a bankin, ya ce a cikin wani rahoto a ranar Alhamis: "Kasuwa ta riga ta narkar da tasirin 'rabin' Bitcoin zuwa wani matsayi. Idan aka yi la'akari da halaye na algorithm na Bitcoin, wannan raguwa yana da yawa. Ba ma tsammanin farashin Bitcoin zai tashi sosai bayan raguwar.

Guo Qicong, Babban Jami'in Harkokin Kayayyakin Kayayyakin Dijital na tushen Singapore AsiaNext, ya ce: "Kamar yadda aka sa ran, 'rabin' ya kasance cikakke a cikin farashi, don haka canje-canjen farashin yana da iyaka. Yanzu, masana'antu za su jira su ga abin da zai faru a nan gaba. Ya ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin ci gaba da sha'awar cibiyoyi za a sake komawa cikin 'yan makonni?"

Mechanically, "rabi" kanta bai kamata ya shafi farashin Bitcoin a cikin gajeren lokaci ba, amma yawancin masu zuba jari suna tsammanin haɓaka mai girma a cikin watanni masu zuwa bisa ga aikin Bitcoin bayan da dama da suka wuce. Bayan raguwa a cikin 2012, 2016 da 2020, farashin Bitcoin ya ƙaru da kusan sau 93, sau 30 da sau 8 bi da bi daga farashin ranar raguwa zuwa kololuwar zagayowar.

Yana da mahimmanci a lura cewa duk lokacin da Bitcoin ya shiga "rabi," tasirin (watau tasirin dilution) na adadin sabbin Bitcoins da aka haƙa akan yawan wadatar Bitcoin yana raguwa. Misali, bayan “rabin rabi” na farko, adadin sabbin Bitcoins da aka hako ya yi daidai da 50% na duk Bitcoins a wurare dabam dabam a lokacin raguwar, wanda ya yi tasiri sosai kan jimlar wadata. Duk da haka, bayan na hudu "rabi", adadin sabon haƙa Bitcoins zai kawai asusu na 3.3% na halin yanzu total wadata, da kuma tasiri a kan jimlar wadata za a ƙwarai raunana.

Kudin shiga ya ragu sosai? Babban wanda aka azabtar da "rabi" ya bayyana?

Idan aka kwatanta da Bitcoin kanta, wannan "rabi" yana da tasiri mai mahimmanci ga masu hakar ma'adinai.

A jajibirin raguwar, farashin hannun jarin masu hakar ma'adinai na Bitcoin ya yi sauyi sosai, alal misali, Riot Platforms ya rufe kusan kashi 41% a ranar Juma'ar da ta gabata, amma ya karu da 2023% a cikin 356. Yawancin farashin hannun jarin masu hakar ma'adinai na Bitcoin sun ragu da lambobi biyu ya zuwa yanzu a wannan shekarar, sabanin ribar da aka samu daga kashi 2023 zuwa 300% a shekarar 600.

Manazarcin JPMorgan Reginald Smith kwanan nan ya lura a cikin bayanin kula ga masu saka hannun jari:

"Tare da sauran yanayin da ba a canza ba, 'rabin' zai rage yawan kudaden shiga na masana'antu da kuma haifar da sabon zagaye na

Ƙarfafa masana'antu da rufe kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai. Amma a sa'i daya kuma, ana sa ran 'rabin' za a daidaita wutar lantarki ta hanyar sadarwa da kuma kashe kudi na masana'antu, wanda a karshe zai amfana da ragowar kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai. "

Gautam Chogani manazarci Bernstein ya ce:

"Idan babu Bitcoin ETFs, kasuwa ya zuwa yanzu duba ma'adinai hannun jari a matsayin madadin Bitcoin. na iya zama da wahala bayan rabin rabi. "

Samun kuɗin shiga na masu hakar ma'adinai na Bitcoin galibi yana fitowa ne daga fannoni biyu: ladan hakar ma'adinai da kuɗin ciniki. Kodayake "rabi" yana shafar ladan ma'adinai kai tsaye, farashin aikin ma'adinai, kamar kuɗin wutar lantarki, kuɗin kayan aiki, da sauransu, ba za a rage ta "rabin".

Wannan yana nufin cewa idan farashin Bitcoin da kuɗaɗen ma'amala ba su tashi sosai don daidaita tasirin sakamako na "rabin ragi", yawancin masu hakar ma'adinai na iya fuskantar matsalolin riba.