Kodi chingachitike ndi chiyani ngati Bitcoin ichepa? Mvetsetsani momwe Bitcoin imachepetsera pakati ndi zotsatira zake

Bitcoin inayambitsa chochitika chachinayi cha "kuchepetsa" m'mbiri.

数据表明，截至北京时间2024年4月20日8:09，比特币在区块高度840000处胜利完成了这一重大时刻，挖矿奖励从6.25BTC减半至3.125BTC，而上一次减半则发生在2020年5月11日。

Kodi njira yochepetsera Bitcoin ndi chiyani?

The Bitcoin theka ndi chochitika chofunika cyclical mu cryptocurrency danga, ndipo nthawi yeniyeni zimadalira liwiro la chipika m'badwo mu maukonde Bitcoin.

Chochitikachi chimachitika kamodzi pa zaka 4 zilizonse.Kapena pambuyo midadada 21 kukumbidwa pa Bitcoin blockchain, Bitcoin mphoto migodi kulandira kuchokera chipika watsopano adzakhala theka.

Cholinga cha kuchepetsa ndi kuchepetsa mlingo umene Bitcoins atsopano amapangidwira, motero kusunga kusowa kwawo ndi mtengo wake.

• Chifukwa cryptocurrency kusinthasintha kwambiri ndi ngozi zotsatizanatsatizana ndalama ndi lalikulu, ngati mukufuna kulanda gawo la theka la mphoto Bitcoin migodi, ndi bwino bwino kuti ndalama si upambana 10% ya gawo, apo ayi inu aganyali.

Zochitika zakale zakuchepetsa pakati:

• 2009: Mphotho za migodi ya Bitcoin zimayambira pa 50 BTC pa block.
• 2012: Gawo loyamba, mphotho idatsikira ku 25 BTC.
• 2016: Gawo lachiwiri, mphotho idatsikira ku 12.5 BTC.
• 2020: Gawo lachitatu, mphotho imatsikira ku 6.25 BTC.
• 2024: Gawo lachinayi, mphotho idzatsikira ku 3.125 BTC.

Kodi kuchepa kwa Bitcoin kudzakhala ndi zotsatira zotani?

Zomwe zidzachitike Bitcoin ikachepa:

1. Kwa ogwira ntchito m'migodi, kuchepetsa ndi theka kumatanthauza kuti malipiro awo amachepetsedwa, zomwe zingakhudze phindu lawo ndi zolimbikitsa za migodi.
2. Kwa msika, zochitika zapakati nthawi zambiri zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi kuwonjezeka kwa mitengo ya Bitcoin, chifukwa kuchepa kwapang'onopang'ono kungapangitse kuwonjezeka kwachibale, kukankhira mtengo wapamwamba.
3. Kwa osunga ndalama, kuchepetsedwa kwa theka ndichinthu chodziwika bwino chifukwa chingakhudze njira zawo zopezera ndalama ndi zobweza.

Mtengo wa Bitcoin umakwera pang'ono pambuyo 'patheka'

Zomwe zimatchedwa "kugawa" zikutanthauza kuti mphotho zomwe anthu ogwira ntchito m'migodi amapeza ndi theka. Nthawi iliyonse Bitcoin blockchain imapanga midadada 21, mphotho ya block ya Bitcoin imachepetsedwa. Kuphatikizanso nthawi ino, Bitcoin idakumana ndi "mahafu" anayi kuyambira pomwe idabadwa mu 2009.

Nkhani zitamveka, mtengo wa Bitcoin unatsika pang'ono ndipo pakali pano ukusintha pafupifupi $ 63550 pa ndalama iliyonse.

Chotsatira cha kuchepa kumeneku ndikuti chiwerengero cha anthu ogwira ntchito m'migodi a Bitcoins omwe amalandila potsimikizira zochitika tsiku ndi tsiku chimachepetsedwa kuchoka pa 900 kufika ku 450, ndipo mphotho zomwe anthu ogwira ntchito m'migodi amapeza zimachepetsedwa kuchoka pa 6.25 Bitcoins kufika ku 3.125 Bitcoins.

"Kuchepetsa" = chiyambi cha msika watsopano wa ng'ombe?

Othandizira Bitcoin poyamba ankayembekezera kuti "theka" adzakhala chothandizira msika watsopano ng'ombe chifukwa pamene kufunika kwa Bitcoin malo ETFs kuchuluka, ndi "theka" zina kuchepetsa kotunga Bitcoin.

历史上，比特币减半事件前后的价格波动引起了广泛关注。在2012年、2016年和2020年的减半事件前30天，比特币价格分别上涨了5%、13%和27%。此外，减半事件还推动了比特币地址数量的增长，尤其是在减半后的150天内，新创建的比特币地址数量分别增长了83%、101%和11%。

Ngakhale kuti mitengo ya Bitcoin yakwera mpaka nthawi zonse pambuyo pochepetsa zochitika zam'mbuyomu, owonera msika, kuphatikiza akatswiri ochokera ku JPMorgan Chase ndi Deutsche Bank, adaneneratu kale kuti zotsatira za "kuchepetsa" izi zitha kukhala makamaka Zakhala zikugayidwa ndi msika pasadakhale. .

Katswiri wa JPMorgan, Nicholas Panigirzoglu, adanena Lachinayi kuti akuyembekeza kuti Bitcoin ikhale ndi mavuto pakanthawi kochepa chifukwa msika wagulidwa kwambiri ndipo mitengo imakhalabe yokwera poyerekeza ndi golide. Ananenanso kuti ndalama za crypto project ndi zaulesi.

Akatswiri a ku Deutsche Bank anali ndi maganizo ofanana. Marion Labor, katswiri wa banki, adanena mu lipoti Lachinayi kuti: "Msika wayamba kale kugaya zotsatira za "kuchepa" kwa Bitcoin pamlingo wakutiwakuti. Poganizira za makhalidwe a Bitcoin aligorivimu, kuchepetsedwa uku kumakhala kwakukulu. zakhala zikuyembekezeredwa ndi msika Sitikuyembekezera kuti mtengo wa Bitcoin udzakwera kwambiri pambuyo pochepa.

Guo Qicong, Mtsogoleri wamkulu wa Singapore-based digital asset exchange AsiaNext, anati: "Monga kuyembekezera, 'halfing' yasonyezedwa mokwanira pamtengo, kotero kusintha kwamitengo kuli kochepa. Tsopano, makampani adzadikira ndikuwona zomwe zidzachitike m'tsogolomu. Zikhalabe mkati mwa chidwi cha mabungwe.

Mwachimake, "kuchepa" palokha sikuyenera kukhudza mitengo ya Bitcoin pakanthawi kochepa, koma osunga ndalama ambiri amayembekeza kukwera kwakukulu m'miyezi ikubwerayi kutengera momwe Bitcoin amagwirira ntchito pambuyo pa magawo angapo am'mbuyomu. Pambuyo pa magawo awiri mu 2012, 2016 ndi 2020, mtengo wa Bitcoin udakwera pafupifupi nthawi 93, nthawi 30 ndi nthawi 8 motsatana kuchokera pamtengo watsiku lochepetsera mpaka kufika pachimake.

Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti nthawi iliyonse Bitcoin ikadutsa "theka," mphamvu (i.e., zotsatira za dilution) za chiwerengero cha Bitcoins zomwe zangotulutsidwa kumene pamtundu wonse wa Bitcoin zimachepa. Mwachitsanzo, pambuyo pa "kuchepa" koyamba, chiwerengero cha Bitcoins chomwe chinakumbidwa kumene chinali chofanana ndi 50% ya Bitcoins zonse zomwe zinkagwiritsidwa ntchito panthawi yochepetsera, zomwe zinakhudza kwambiri ndalama zonse. Komabe, pambuyo pa "theka" lachinayi, chiwerengero cha Bitcoins chongokumbidwa kumene chidzangowonjezera 3.3% ya zomwe zilipo panopa, ndipo zotsatira zake zidzachepa kwambiri.

Ndalama zatsika kwambiri? Wozunzidwa wamkulu wa "hafu" akuwoneka?

Poyerekeza ndi Bitcoin palokha, "kuchepa" kumeneku kumakhudza kwambiri ochita migodi.

Madzulo apakati, mitengo ya Bitcoin miner idasintha kwambiri Mwachitsanzo, Riot Platforms idatseka pafupifupi 41% Lachisanu lapitali, koma idakwera 2023% mu 356. Mitengo yambiri ya migodi ya Bitcoin yatsika ndi manambala awiri mpaka pano chaka chino, mosiyana kwambiri ndi zopindula za 2023% mpaka 300% mu 600.

Katswiri wa JPMorgan Reginald Smith posachedwapa adanenanso m'makalata kwa osunga ndalama:

"Ndi mikhalidwe ina yomwe sinasinthidwe, 'kuchepetsa' kudzachepetsa kwambiri ndalama zamabizinesi ndikuyambitsa kuzungulira kwatsopano.

Kuphatikiza kwamakampani ndi kutsekedwa kwamakampani amigodi. Koma panthawi imodzimodziyo, 'kuchepa' kukuyembekezeka kulinganiza mphamvu zamakompyuta ndi ndalama zamakampani, zomwe zidzapindulitse makampani otsala amigodi. "

Katswiri wa Bernstein Gautam Chogani adati:

"Pakalibe Bitcoin ETFs, msika wawona migodi ngati njira ina kuposa Bitcoin Theka theka adzasiyanitsa otsika mtengo, scalable, Integrated opambana adzatuluka plethora ang'onoang'ono ndi sing'anga-kakulidwe migodi. zikhoza kukhala zovuta pambuyo pa kutha. "

Ndalama za ochita migodi ya Bitcoin makamaka zimachokera ku mbali ziwiri: mphotho zamigodi ndi ndalama zogulira. Ngakhale kuti "kuchepa" kumakhudza mwachindunji mphotho za migodi, ndalama zogwirira ntchito za anthu ogwira ntchito m'migodi, monga magetsi a magetsi, malipiro a zipangizo, ndi zina zotero, sizidzachepetsedwa ndi "kuchepa".

Izi zikutanthauza kuti ngati mitengo ya Bitcoin ndi ndalama zogulira sizikwera kwambiri kuti zithetse zotsatira za "kuchepa" kwa mphothoyo, ochita migodi ambiri angakumane ndi zovuta zopindulitsa.